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What happens after the October meeting is far from clear. - Howard Archer Quotes

What happens after the October meeting is far from clear.

In economic terms at least, Wednesday's budget seems set to be a very low key affair. - Howard Archer Quotes

In economic terms at least, Wednesday's budget seems set to be a very low key affair.

Overall, the mortgage approvals and lending data indicate that the more robust housing market activity evident in the second half of 2005 has continued into 2006. - Howard Archer Quotes

Overall, the mortgage approvals and lending data indicate that the more robust housing market activity evident in the second half of 2005 has continued into 2006.

Nevertheless, limited core inflation in January will not deter the ECB from hiking interest rates by a further 25 basis points on Thursday. - Howard Archer Quotes

Nevertheless, limited core inflation in January will not deter the ECB from hiking interest rates by a further 25 basis points on Thursday.

This underpins our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic on the growth outlook and will eventually end up trimming interest rates by a further 25 basis points. - Howard Archer Quotes

This underpins our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic on the growth outlook and will eventually end up trimming interest rates by a further 25 basis points.

The evidence of marked improvement in the manufacturing sector further guarantees there will be no interest rate cut this Thursday. Indeed, we admit it is looking increasingly questionable whether interest rates will be trimmed further. - Howard Archer Quotes

The evidence of marked improvement in the manufacturing sector further guarantees there will be no interest rate cut this Thursday. Indeed, we admit it is looking increasingly questionable whether interest rates will be trimmed further.

This is still a pretty benign report overall and broadly in line with Bank of England expectations contained in the February Inflation Report. - Howard Archer Quotes

This is still a pretty benign report overall and broadly in line with Bank of England expectations contained in the February Inflation Report.

It currently seems a pretty safe bet that interest rates will not change for several more months to come, if at all this year. - Howard Archer Quotes

It currently seems a pretty safe bet that interest rates will not change for several more months to come, if at all this year.

House prices are likely to remain relatively flat for an extended period, - Howard Archer Quotes

House prices are likely to remain relatively flat for an extended period,

Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut. - Howard Archer Quotes

Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut.

While we believe that it is premature to rule out another 25-basis-point cut before the end of this year, we acknowledge that the odds are increasing that it will be delayed until early 2006. - Howard Archer Quotes

While we believe that it is premature to rule out another 25-basis-point cut before the end of this year, we acknowledge that the odds are increasing that it will be delayed until early 2006.

The markedly reduced mortgage equity withdrawal since its fourth-quarter 2003 peak has undoubtedly weighed down significantly on consumer spending since mid-2004. - Howard Archer Quotes

The markedly reduced mortgage equity withdrawal since its fourth-quarter 2003 peak has undoubtedly weighed down significantly on consumer spending since mid-2004.

It appears that strong competitive pressures on the high street and through the supply chain are continuing to contain any second round inflationary effects of high oil and energy prices. - Howard Archer Quotes

It appears that strong competitive pressures on the high street and through the supply chain are continuing to contain any second round inflationary effects of high oil and energy prices.

The MPC still has to see conclusive sustained evidence that 2006 pay settlements are remaining contained. - Howard Archer Quotes

The MPC still has to see conclusive sustained evidence that 2006 pay settlements are remaining contained.

It seems a nailed-on certainty that the Bank of England will hold interest rates steady on Thursday, - Howard Archer Quotes

It seems a nailed-on certainty that the Bank of England will hold interest rates steady on Thursday,

The increase in inflation in August was primarily due to higher prices for fuel and some food items, while core consumer inflation actually edged back down to 1.7% after spiking up to 1.8% in July from 1.5% in June. - Howard Archer Quotes

The increase in inflation in August was primarily due to higher prices for fuel and some food items, while core consumer inflation actually edged back down to 1.7% after spiking up to 1.8% in July from 1.5% in June.

Food

The increase in inflation in August was primarily due to higher prices for fuel and some food items, while core consumer inflation actually edged back down to 1.7% after spiking up to 1.8% in July from 1.5% in June, - Howard Archer Quotes

The increase in inflation in August was primarily due to higher prices for fuel and some food items, while core consumer inflation actually edged back down to 1.7% after spiking up to 1.8% in July from 1.5% in June,

Food

While the fourth quarter GDP data and the relatively healthy mix of the components further diminishes the chances of a near-term trimming of interest rates, we still believe a 25 basis point interest rate cut is very possible in May. - Howard Archer Quotes

While the fourth quarter GDP data and the relatively healthy mix of the components further diminishes the chances of a near-term trimming of interest rates, we still believe a 25 basis point interest rate cut is very possible in May.

This increased housing market activity has clearly led to some recent firming in house prices, and there is undeniably a risk that prices could move sharply higher over the coming months. - Howard Archer Quotes

This increased housing market activity has clearly led to some recent firming in house prices, and there is undeniably a risk that prices could move sharply higher over the coming months.

The combination of rising unemployment, falling employment and muted earnings growth is hardly supportive for consumer spending. It reinforces our belief that overall growth will be softer than forecast by the Bank of England and that underlying inflationary pressures will remain muted. - Howard Archer Quotes

The combination of rising unemployment, falling employment and muted earnings growth is hardly supportive for consumer spending. It reinforces our belief that overall growth will be softer than forecast by the Bank of England and that underlying inflationary pressures will remain muted.

With economic growth likely to remain below trend in the near term at least and unemployment set to continue rising, there is a very real danger that individual insolvencies and mortgage repossessions will climb markedly further over the coming months. - Howard Archer Quotes

With economic growth likely to remain below trend in the near term at least and unemployment set to continue rising, there is a very real danger that individual insolvencies and mortgage repossessions will climb markedly further over the coming months.

The euro zone's upturn is still young and relatively fragile with significant question marks still hanging over the long-term strength of domestic demand. - Howard Archer Quotes

The euro zone's upturn is still young and relatively fragile with significant question marks still hanging over the long-term strength of domestic demand.

Euro

All the indications are that the ECB remains inclined to tighten monetary policy further over the coming months to contain inflationary risks. - Howard Archer Quotes

All the indications are that the ECB remains inclined to tighten monetary policy further over the coming months to contain inflationary risks.

The latest data - including the improvement in manufacturing activity and current strength of the housing market - has increased the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates will be up. - Howard Archer Quotes

The latest data - including the improvement in manufacturing activity and current strength of the housing market - has increased the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates will be up.

For now at least, the Bank of England will be very wary that a trimming of interest rates could excessively stimulate the housing market and risk sending house prices markedly higher. It certainly further rules out a move today. - Howard Archer Quotes

For now at least, the Bank of England will be very wary that a trimming of interest rates could excessively stimulate the housing market and risk sending house prices markedly higher. It certainly further rules out a move today.

The disappointing decline in manufacturing output is most unlikely to sway the Bank of England from leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday. - Howard Archer Quotes

The disappointing decline in manufacturing output is most unlikely to sway the Bank of England from leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday.

The data were firmer overall than expected, - Howard Archer Quotes

The data were firmer overall than expected,

We believe the door is opening for an interest rate cut early in 2006 if the economy fails to show sustained significant signs of improvement over the next couple of months. - Howard Archer Quotes

We believe the door is opening for an interest rate cut early in 2006 if the economy fails to show sustained significant signs of improvement over the next couple of months.

It appears that significant discounting is still needed to boost sales volumes. - Howard Archer Quotes

It appears that significant discounting is still needed to boost sales volumes.

Sales

The Bank of England currently seems unlikely to act before August given that growth in the first quarter appears to have been around trend, while survey evidence indicates that inflationary expectations have risen recently. - Howard Archer Quotes

The Bank of England currently seems unlikely to act before August given that growth in the first quarter appears to have been around trend, while survey evidence indicates that inflationary expectations have risen recently.

We suspect economic activity over much of 2006 will be held back by sluggish consumer spending and that the Bank of England's growth forecast will prove to be too optimistic. - Howard Archer Quotes

We suspect economic activity over much of 2006 will be held back by sluggish consumer spending and that the Bank of England's growth forecast will prove to be too optimistic.

While the February mortgage lending and approval data are relatively healthy, there are hints that housing market activity could be starting to lose momentum after several months of improvement. - Howard Archer Quotes

While the February mortgage lending and approval data are relatively healthy, there are hints that housing market activity could be starting to lose momentum after several months of improvement.

The testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee reinforce the impression that interest rates are set to remain on hold for several months to come. - Howard Archer Quotes

The testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee reinforce the impression that interest rates are set to remain on hold for several months to come.

This significantly reduces the prospects of any interest cut until at least August. Indeed, it increases the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates could be up. - Howard Archer Quotes

This significantly reduces the prospects of any interest cut until at least August. Indeed, it increases the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates could be up.

Consumer confidence is faltering anew, which does not bode well for spending in the near term at least. - Howard Archer Quotes

Consumer confidence is faltering anew, which does not bode well for spending in the near term at least.

The February CBI survey reinforces our belief that consumer spending will be unable to sustain the relatively strong performance seen in the fourth quarter of 2005. - Howard Archer Quotes

The February CBI survey reinforces our belief that consumer spending will be unable to sustain the relatively strong performance seen in the fourth quarter of 2005.

Consumer confidence held up relatively well in February, following January's sharp bounce. - Howard Archer Quotes

Consumer confidence held up relatively well in February, following January's sharp bounce.

The MPC could remain on the sidelines for some months to come as it monitors the strength of consumer spending and the housing market, and also looks to see if high oil and energy prices are feeding through to have second round inflationary effects. - Howard Archer Quotes

The MPC could remain on the sidelines for some months to come as it monitors the strength of consumer spending and the housing market, and also looks to see if high oil and energy prices are feeding through to have second round inflationary effects.

This is likely to reinforce the central bank's concern that any further trimming of interest rates could excessively stimulate the housing market and risk send housing prices markedly higher. - Howard Archer Quotes

This is likely to reinforce the central bank's concern that any further trimming of interest rates could excessively stimulate the housing market and risk send housing prices markedly higher.

We still believe UK interest rates will eventually be trimmed by a further 25 basis points, although not until August at the earliest. - Howard Archer Quotes

We still believe UK interest rates will eventually be trimmed by a further 25 basis points, although not until August at the earliest.

Future growth still depends critically on developments in consumer spending, and we suspect that this will be relatively muted over the coming months. - Howard Archer Quotes

Future growth still depends critically on developments in consumer spending, and we suspect that this will be relatively muted over the coming months.

The fall in headline annual producer output price inflation in March was primarily due to base effects reflecting the particularly sharp rise in producer prices a year ago as oil prices surged. - Howard Archer Quotes

The fall in headline annual producer output price inflation in March was primarily due to base effects reflecting the particularly sharp rise in producer prices a year ago as oil prices surged.

Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked. - Howard Archer Quotes

Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked.

UK imports of goods excluding oil ... rose for a fourth successive month in February, and by substantial 4.5 percent, suggesting that domestic demand may have surprised on the upside in the first quarter. - Howard Archer Quotes

UK imports of goods excluding oil ... rose for a fourth successive month in February, and by substantial 4.5 percent, suggesting that domestic demand may have surprised on the upside in the first quarter.

Retail sales picked up more than expected in March, which along with the current strength in the housing market, boosts hopes that the consumer is still alive, if not exactly kicking. - Howard Archer Quotes

Retail sales picked up more than expected in March, which along with the current strength in the housing market, boosts hopes that the consumer is still alive, if not exactly kicking.

Sales

While it is clearly premature to sound the all-clear on inflation, the October consumer prices data are largely reassuring for the Bank of England and boost hopes that inflation has peaked, - Howard Archer Quotes

While it is clearly premature to sound the all-clear on inflation, the October consumer prices data are largely reassuring for the Bank of England and boost hopes that inflation has peaked,

Consumer credit growth was again relatively muted in September, pointing to continuing consumer caution, - Howard Archer Quotes

Consumer credit growth was again relatively muted in September, pointing to continuing consumer caution,

Relatively subdued consumer spending, intense domestic and international competition, and high input costs continue to dampen ... the sector. - Howard Archer Quotes

Relatively subdued consumer spending, intense domestic and international competition, and high input costs continue to dampen ... the sector.

The earnings data may encourage the Bank of England to hold off from cutting interest rates in the immediate future as March while it seeks sustained clear evidence that the pay settlements for 2006 are remaining contained (the early signs are that wage moderation is continuing). However, we believe that interest rates are likely to be trimmed by a further 25 basis points by May. - Howard Archer Quotes

The earnings data may encourage the Bank of England to hold off from cutting interest rates in the immediate future as March while it seeks sustained clear evidence that the pay settlements for 2006 are remaining contained (the early signs are that wage moderation is continuing). However, we believe that interest rates are likely to be trimmed by a further 25 basis points by May.

With one member of the MPC voting for an interest rate cut in December and Bank of England chief economist, Charlie Bean, recently making some dovish comments, the odds of an interest rate cut early in 2006 are rising. - Howard Archer Quotes

With one member of the MPC voting for an interest rate cut in December and Bank of England chief economist, Charlie Bean, recently making some dovish comments, the odds of an interest rate cut early in 2006 are rising.

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